Hi Friends! Welcome to the 85+ people who signed up last week. I’m excited to share this week’s “Designing Near Future” Newsletter with you.

Here’s the breakdown of what’s in store today

⭐ 1 Shift: Why is Everyone Suddenly Going Outdoors?

⚡ 1 Tip : A tip to brainstorm unconventional ideas

💊 3 Resources: Creative resources for taking your work to the next level

⭐ Shift

Why is Everyone Suddenly Going Outdoors?

Since the pandemic, We are in an outdoor boom. From Dior adding footcovers to its shoes to full blown electric kitchens in pickup trucks everyone wants in on the boom.

The Outdoor Industry Association's 2023 Outdoor Participation Trends Report found that the number of people participating in outdoor recreation grew by 2.3% in 2022 to a record 168.1 million participants representing 55% of the U.S. population ages six and older. Although the number of activities per participant declined, the participant base became more diverse in 2022 including increases in participation among Black people, Hispanic people, and LBGTQIA+ people. Nearly half of adults in England also reported spending more time outdoors than before the pandemic (45%, March 2022)

We will dive deeper into why this is happening and what opportunities it presents for brands.

There is a strong correlation between spending time in nature and mental and physical health. Studies have shown that people who spend more time in nature have lower levels of stress, anxiety, and depression. But this is not the sole reason for the shift.

This shift is due, in part, to the increasing popularity of social media, which has made it easier to share photos and videos of outdoor adventures. I want to argue that a large number people are going outside to not be lost, or to find tranquility, but to be seen. Secondly, as COVID restrictions, and reservation limitations lift up, more and more people are flocking to the hot destinations. This video discusses how Too many people are going outside in the US and it’s impact on the national reserves.

What Products are booming?

Earlier this year Rivian reported that it has delivered 21,252 vehicles. Rivian produced 24,337 vehicles in 2022, which is 2,297% more than 2021 (1,015). Wild! For a new kid on the block, this is a brilliant achievement and it comes at the right time. Last year they made rounds on the internet for a full blown electric kitchen attachment that pops out from the EV - it is now discontinued but currently undergoing a design refresh.

Another company to watch out for is Lightship. The Lightship L1, their first product, is an all-electric travel trailer that will be available in late 2024. They secured a massive $23 million in Series A funding secured last year. It looks incredible.

Anker also released a bunch of new products last month. One that stood out was the 548 Power Bank which is a power bank with a capacity of 60,000mAh, aimed towards outdoor enthusiasts. It also comes with a retractable lamp and an emergency button. In that same world, a research report claims that The global portable power station market is estimated to grow from USD 0.5 Billion in 2023 to USD 1.1 Billion by 2028; it is expected to record a CAGR of 18.4%.

This article from the last year signals the shift in the market too. It says - in 2022, Within the core outdoor industry retail, apparel sales were up 21% to $15.9 billion, footwear sales grew 18% to $5.3 billion, equipment sales gained 11% to $5.8 billion, and accessories jumped 35% to $1.3 billion. Speaking of apparels, this Supreme x North Face collection, the rise of Gorpcore and hikefits are all forms of validation for this shift.

My job here is to make you understand that this is not just mere prediction. I am watching a few brands for their next moves.

Brands to watch out for

1. Acacia : Currently raising money on indiegogo, Acacia has come up with a 3 in 1 tent system. My guess is they will raise $1M+. You could use it on water or land! Pretty cool.

2. Wacaco : Inventors of the Minipresso, enabling espresso on the go. Loosely it’s an aesthetic treatment on an aeropress - for the traveler that worries about instagramability of a trip but a neat looking product.

3. Nocs : Some of the cutest optics I have seen. A good example of breaking free from the outdoor aesthetic and have an ownable design in the binocular space.

So what’s the shift?

More newbies are joining the outdoor market

The post-COVID rise in outdoor activity could be seen as an opposite reaction to being caged at home. But a year later, we are still steadily seeing outdoor products as one of the highest grossing D2C markets. Apps like Alltrails aren’t underdogs and big players like Patagonia, North Face, Adidas have come together to ensure the outdoors continue to be a inclusive, educative, and enjoyable experience for the people of the global majority.

While this area is evergreen (pun intended), in 2023 with new participants exploring the outdoors, there’s an influx of novice and first time campers, hikers, outlanders and adventure sport enthusiasts. They are not experts but most outdoor brands target experts. This presents a unique opportunity for people looking to build in this space. I’ll leave you with 2 ideas

Exciting opportunities for building in this space:

1. Products that educate: Look towards making entry level solutions which can be a great introduction for newcomers. Most brands feature complex feature salad in the outdoor market. Look to do the key things, in the right manner.

2. Rituals outside home: Just as coffee has found it’s way to the outdoors, so has electric barbecues and movie projectors. Look towards celebrating home rituals outside in the wild but take advantage of the being present in the nature.

The outdoor market is an interesting space because of the support system from bloggers, reviewers and trade shows. If you are building in this space, the first step is to understand the community, before you begin solving problem. Good luck.

⚡ Tip

How to brainstorm unconventional ideas

R is for Reverse/O is for Opposite

“The opposite of every great idea is another great idea”

It’s debated who said this first but it holds true in idea generation. Probably why they included this in the SCAMPER method of brainstorming ideas as well.

The premise is simple. A great idea is so far on the spectrum of conventionality, that the opposite of that idea is also an unconventional idea. So every time you are feeling stuck while generating new concepts, look at the ones your already penned down. You want to reverse those ideas and see what comes up.

Examples.

Idea - User goes to the food i.e. a restaurant
Opposite - Food comes to the user i.e. food delivery

Idea - A computing device designed to hide complex internals i.e. Iphone
Opposite - A computing device designed to showcase internals i.e. Nothing Phone (1)

Idea - A game that is highly curated with a specific storyline.
Opposite - A game where the user chooses their own adventure.

You get the point. Here’s some opposites of common ideas -

Minimal - Maximal
Modular - Monolithic
Retro - Futuristic
Organic - Geometric
Monochrome - Polychrome
Structured - Freeform
Literal - Symbolic
Harmonious - Contrasting
Decorative - Functional